Athletic Club vs Alaves prediction
La Liga
Kickoff: 15:15
Final result
Athletic Club 0–0 Alaves
Prediction published 19 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 19 Sep 2026, 18:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Athletic Club
U. Egiluz Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
D. Vivian Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
U. Egiluz Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
D. Vivian Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
Alaves
F. Garces Unknown
Missing Fixture · Suspended · impact 0%
A. Manas Attacker
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.9%
M. Rodriguez Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 1.6%
F. Garces Unknown
Missing Fixture · Suspended · impact 0%
A. Manas Attacker
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.9%
M. Rodriguez Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 1.6%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
47% 48%
Draw
24% 25%
Away
29% 27%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 49.3% · edge +7.7 pts · odds 1.9
Lost
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 50% · edge +4 pts · odds 1.91
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Athletic Club played Alaves. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 47% to Athletic Club, 24% to a draw and 29% to Alaves.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Athletic Club have a 47% chance of winning. Draw probability is 24%. Alaves have a 29% chance. Frozen selections: BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 Goals.