Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander prediction
La Liga
Kickoff: 17:30
Final result
Celta Vigo 5–0 Racing Santander
Prediction published 19 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 19 Sep 2026, 20:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Celta Vigo
A. Antanon Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 1.6%
I. Aspas Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3%
J. El Abdellaoui Attacker
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 2.3%
A. Antanon Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 1.6%
I. Aspas Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3%
J. El Abdellaoui Attacker
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 2.3%
Racing Santander
S. Eriksson Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Shoulder Injury · impact 1.2%
A. Martin Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 3.1%
S. Eriksson Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Shoulder Injury · impact 1.2%
A. Martin Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 3.1%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
51% 48%
Draw
22% 23%
Away
27% 29%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 57.8% · edge +9.2 pts · odds 1.64
Won
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 58.6% · edge +7.4 pts · odds 1.59
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Celta Vigo played Racing Santander. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 51% to Celta Vigo, 22% to a draw and 27% to Racing Santander.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Celta Vigo have a 51% chance of winning. Draw probability is 22%. Racing Santander have a 27% chance. Frozen selections: Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS Yes.