Getafe vs Malaga prediction
La Liga
Kickoff: 13:00
Final result
Getafe 1–0 Malaga
Prediction published 20 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 20 Sep 2026, 16:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Getafe
A. Abqar Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.8%
Juanmi Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
Kiko Femenia Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 2.2%
M. Martin Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 3.5%
C. Uche Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
A. Abqar Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.8%
Juanmi Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
Kiko Femenia Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 2.2%
M. Martin Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 3.5%
C. Uche Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Malaga
J. Cajuste Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.3%
M. Diarra Unknown
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 0%
J. Lobete Attacker
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 1.3%
D. Murillo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
A. Ochoa Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
A. Aznou Defender
Questionable · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
F. Calero Unknown
Questionable · Ribs Injury · impact 0%
J. Cajuste Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.3%
M. Diarra Unknown
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 0%
J. Lobete Attacker
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 1.3%
D. Murillo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
A. Ochoa Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
A. Aznou Defender
Questionable · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
F. Calero Unknown
Questionable · Ribs Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
66% 61%
Draw
21% 24%
Away
13% 15%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
match winner · verified value edge
Home Win
Market 46.5% · edge +19.5 pts · odds 2.05
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Getafe played Malaga. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 66% to Getafe, 21% to a draw and 13% to Malaga.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Getafe have a 66% chance of winning. Draw probability is 21%. Malaga have a 13% chance. Frozen selections: Home Win.