Sevilla vs Barcelona prediction
La Liga
Kickoff: 20:00
Final result
Sevilla 1–3 Barcelona
Prediction published 19 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 19 Sep 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Sevilla
L. Stassin Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.8%
R. Vargas Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 1.3%
L. Stassin Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.8%
R. Vargas Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 1.3%
Barcelona
R. Bardghji Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
J. Garcia Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 5%
F. de Jong Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
R. Bardghji Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
J. Garcia Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 5%
F. de Jong Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
17% 17%
Draw
18% 18%
Away
65% 65%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 43% · edge +9 pts · odds 2.21
Lost
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 56.6% · edge +6.4 pts · odds 1.65
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Sevilla played Barcelona. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 17% to Sevilla, 18% to a draw and 65% to Barcelona.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Sevilla have a 17% chance of winning. Draw probability is 18%. Barcelona have a 65% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals and BTTS Yes.