Bayern München vs Union Berlin prediction
Bundesliga
Kickoff: 19:30
Final result
Bayern München 7–0 Union Berlin
Prediction published 18 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 18 Sep 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Bayern München
T. Buchmann Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
T. Buchmann Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Union Berlin
O. Burke Unknown
Missing Fixture · Achilles Tendon Injury · impact 0%
M. Friedrich Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
A. Ilic Unknown
Missing Fixture · Illness · impact 0%
J. Juranovic Defender
Missing Fixture · Illness · impact 5.2%
A. Markgraf Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
S. Nsoki Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
K. Imeri Unknown
Questionable · Thigh Injury · impact 0%
O. Burke Unknown
Missing Fixture · Achilles Tendon Injury · impact 0%
M. Friedrich Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
A. Ilic Unknown
Missing Fixture · Illness · impact 0%
J. Juranovic Defender
Missing Fixture · Illness · impact 5.2%
A. Markgraf Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
S. Nsoki Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
K. Imeri Unknown
Questionable · Thigh Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
78% 82%
Draw
13% 11%
Away
9% 7%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 28.5% · edge +23.5 pts · odds 3.26
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Bayern München played Union Berlin. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 78% to Bayern München, 13% to a draw and 9% to Union Berlin.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Bayern München have a 78% chance of winning. Draw probability is 13%. Union Berlin have a 9% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.