VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
Bundesliga
Kickoff: 17:30
Final result
VfB Stuttgart 0–1 Borussia Dortmund
Prediction published 19 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 19 Sep 2026, 20:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
VfB Stuttgart
L. Assignon Unknown
Missing Fixture · Shoulder Injury · impact 0%
J. Diehl Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
L. Jaquez Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
D. Seimen Unknown
Missing Fixture · Thigh Injury · impact 0%
T. Tomas Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.1%
D. Zagadou Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
M. Herwerth Defender
Questionable · Injury · impact 0%
N. Nartey Unknown
Questionable · Thigh Injury · impact 0%
A. Stiller Midfielder
Questionable · Knee Injury · impact 0%
L. Assignon Unknown
Missing Fixture · Shoulder Injury · impact 0%
J. Diehl Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
L. Jaquez Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
D. Seimen Unknown
Missing Fixture · Thigh Injury · impact 0%
T. Tomas Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.1%
D. Zagadou Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
M. Herwerth Defender
Questionable · Injury · impact 0%
N. Nartey Unknown
Questionable · Thigh Injury · impact 0%
A. Stiller Midfielder
Questionable · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Borussia Dortmund
E. Can Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
M. Kaba Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
G. Konstantelias Attacker
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 2%
J. Lerma Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
F. Mane Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.9%
E. Can Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
M. Kaba Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
G. Konstantelias Attacker
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 2%
J. Lerma Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
F. Mane Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.9%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
45% 46%
Draw
22% 22%
Away
33% 32%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
both teams score
BTTS Yes
Lost
total goals
Over 2.5 Goals
Lost
double chance
Home Win or Draw
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before VfB Stuttgart played Borussia Dortmund. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 45% to VfB Stuttgart, 22% to a draw and 33% to Borussia Dortmund.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart have a 45% chance of winning. Draw probability is 22%. Borussia Dortmund have a 33% chance. Frozen selections: BTTS Yes, Over 2.5 Goals and Home Win or Draw.