Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig prediction
Bundesliga
Kickoff: 14:30
Final result
Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 RB Leipzig
Prediction published 20 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 20 Sep 2026, 17:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Bayer Leverkusen
M. Culbreath Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
G. Doue Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.6%
K. Eichhorn Unknown
Missing Fixture · Illness · impact 0%
N. Tella Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
M. Culbreath Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
G. Doue Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.6%
K. Eichhorn Unknown
Missing Fixture · Illness · impact 0%
N. Tella Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
RB Leipzig
C. Baumgartner Unknown
Missing Fixture · Thigh Injury · impact 0%
M. Guiu Attacker
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 1.4%
A. Ouedraogo Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Shoulder Injury · impact 1.7%
R. Reitz Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.6%
C. Baumgartner Unknown
Missing Fixture · Thigh Injury · impact 0%
M. Guiu Attacker
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 1.4%
A. Ouedraogo Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Shoulder Injury · impact 1.7%
R. Reitz Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.6%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
60% 63%
Draw
21% 20%
Away
19% 17%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
match winner · verified value edge
Home Win
Market 48% · edge +12 pts · odds 1.98
Won
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 49.1% · edge +10.9 pts · odds 1.95
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Bayer Leverkusen played RB Leipzig. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 60% to Bayer Leverkusen, 21% to a draw and 19% to RB Leipzig.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen have a 60% chance of winning. Draw probability is 21%. RB Leipzig have a 19% chance. Frozen selections: Home Win and Under 3.5 Goals.