Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln prediction
Bundesliga
Kickoff: 14:30
Final result
Hamburger SV 2–1 1. FC Köln
Prediction published 19 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 19 Sep 2026, 17:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Hamburger SV
S. Bornauw Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3.7%
A. Rossing-Lelesiit Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
M. Vuskovic Unknown
Missing Fixture · Doping · impact 0%
S. Bornauw Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3.7%
A. Rossing-Lelesiit Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
M. Vuskovic Unknown
Missing Fixture · Doping · impact 0%
1. FC Köln
T. Hubers Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
T. Hubers Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
34% 31%
Draw
22% 21%
Away
44% 48%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 59.8% · edge +8.2 pts · odds 1.6
Won
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 63% · edge +5 pts · odds 1.47
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Hamburger SV played 1. FC Köln. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 34% to Hamburger SV, 22% to a draw and 44% to 1. FC Köln.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Hamburger SV have a 34% chance of winning. Draw probability is 22%. 1. FC Köln have a 44% chance. Frozen selections: Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS Yes.