Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction
Bundesliga
Kickoff: 14:30
Final result
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–4 FSV Mainz 05
Prediction published 19 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 19 Sep 2026, 17:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
J. Castrop Unknown
Missing Fixture · Shoulder Injury · impact 0%
T. Kleindienst Attacker
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 4.3%
N. Kuhn Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.5%
E. Leopold Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 1.2%
Y. Konoplya Unknown
Questionable · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Z. Uno Unknown
Questionable · Lacking Match Fitness · impact 0%
J. Castrop Unknown
Missing Fixture · Shoulder Injury · impact 0%
T. Kleindienst Attacker
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 4.3%
N. Kuhn Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.5%
E. Leopold Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 1.2%
Y. Konoplya Unknown
Questionable · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Z. Uno Unknown
Questionable · Lacking Match Fitness · impact 0%
FSV Mainz 05
D. Kohr Defender
Missing Fixture · Foot Injury · impact 2.3%
P. Nebel Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
Silas Unknown
Missing Fixture · Broken shinbone · impact 0%
S. Widmer Defender
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 1.4%
R. Zentner Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Hand Injury · impact 3.7%
D. Kohr Defender
Missing Fixture · Foot Injury · impact 2.3%
P. Nebel Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
Silas Unknown
Missing Fixture · Broken shinbone · impact 0%
S. Widmer Defender
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 1.4%
R. Zentner Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Hand Injury · impact 3.7%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
22% 22%
Draw
19% 19%
Away
59% 59%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
match winner · verified value edge
Away Win
Market 42.8% · edge +16.2 pts · odds 2.23
Won
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 63.6% · edge +9.4 pts · odds 1.47
Won
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 65% · edge +4 pts · odds 1.43
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Borussia Mönchengladbach played FSV Mainz 05. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 22% to Borussia Mönchengladbach, 19% to a draw and 59% to FSV Mainz 05.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach have a 22% chance of winning. Draw probability is 19%. FSV Mainz 05 have a 59% chance. Frozen selections: Away Win, Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS Yes.