SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim prediction
Bundesliga
Kickoff: 18:30
Final result
SC Paderborn 07 3–1 1899 Hoffenheim
Prediction published 20 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 20 Sep 2026, 21:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
SC Paderborn 07
N. Awortwie-Grant Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
L. Eickel Unknown
Missing Fixture · Back Injury · impact 0%
T. Gayret Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
S. Michel Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
N. Awortwie-Grant Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
L. Eickel Unknown
Missing Fixture · Back Injury · impact 0%
T. Gayret Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
S. Michel Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
1899 Hoffenheim
Bernardo Defender
Missing Fixture · Achilles Tendon Injury · impact 1.9%
Bernardo Defender
Missing Fixture · Achilles Tendon Injury · impact 1.9%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
38% 39%
Draw
25% 25%
Away
37% 36%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 54.8% · edge +12.2 pts · odds 1.73
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before SC Paderborn 07 played 1899 Hoffenheim. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 38% to SC Paderborn 07, 25% to a draw and 37% to 1899 Hoffenheim.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 have a 38% chance of winning. Draw probability is 25%. 1899 Hoffenheim have a 37% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.