Ilves vs HNK Rijeka prediction
UEFA Europa Conference League
Kickoff: 17:00
Final result
Ilves 1–1 HNK Rijeka
Prediction published 13 Aug 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 13 Aug 2026, 19:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Ilves
No verified absences returned.
HNK Rijeka
No verified absences returned.
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
No verified absence currently requires a probability adjustment.
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
match winner · verified value edge
Home Win
Market 20.2% · edge +33.8 pts · odds 4.6
Lost
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 45.8% · edge +9.2 pts · odds 2.05
Lost
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 48.1% · edge +7.9 pts · odds 1.92
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Ilves played HNK Rijeka. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 54% to Ilves, 23% to a draw and 23% to HNK Rijeka.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Ilves have a 54% chance of winning. Draw probability is 23%. HNK Rijeka have a 23% chance. Frozen selections: Home Win, Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS Yes.