Rīgas FS vs FK Jablonec prediction
UEFA Europa Conference League
Kickoff: 17:30
Final result
Rīgas FS 1–2 FK Jablonec
Prediction published 13 Aug 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 13 Aug 2026, 20:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Rīgas FS
No verified absences returned.
FK Jablonec
No verified absences returned.
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
No verified absence currently requires a probability adjustment.
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 44.3% · edge +21.7 pts · odds 2.1
Won
match winner · verified value edge
Home Win
Market 45.7% · edge +17.3 pts · odds 2.02
Lost
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 49.5% · edge +10.5 pts · odds 1.86
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Rīgas FS played FK Jablonec. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 63% to Rīgas FS, 19% to a draw and 18% to FK Jablonec.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Rīgas FS have a 63% chance of winning. Draw probability is 19%. FK Jablonec have a 18% chance. Frozen selections: Over 2.5 Goals, Home Win and BTTS Yes.