Lyon vs Fenerbahçe prediction
UEFA Champions League
Kickoff: 20:00
Final result
Lyon 1–2 Fenerbahçe
Prediction published 26 Aug 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 26 Aug 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Lyon
J. Duranville Attacker
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 1.3%
K. Merah Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
J. Duranville Attacker
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 1.3%
K. Merah Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
Fenerbahçe
K. Akturkoglu Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Concussion · impact 4.9%
M. Asensio Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3.2%
Diego Carlos Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
M. Gunok Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 4.2%
D. Livakovic Unknown
Missing Fixture · Transfer negotiations · impact 0%
O. Mimovic Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
J. Oosterwolde Defender
Missing Fixture · Achilles Tendon Injury · impact 3%
Rodrigo Becao Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
C. Under Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
M. Yandas Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
A. Yesilyurt Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
C. Soyuncu Defender
Questionable · Injury · impact 0%
K. Akturkoglu Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Concussion · impact 4.9%
M. Asensio Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3.2%
Diego Carlos Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
M. Gunok Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 4.2%
D. Livakovic Unknown
Missing Fixture · Transfer negotiations · impact 0%
O. Mimovic Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
J. Oosterwolde Defender
Missing Fixture · Achilles Tendon Injury · impact 3%
Rodrigo Becao Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
C. Under Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
M. Yandas Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
A. Yesilyurt Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
C. Soyuncu Defender
Questionable · Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
53% 61%
Draw
25% 22%
Away
22% 17%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 68.5% · edge +5.5 pts · odds 1.38
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Lyon played Fenerbahçe. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 53% to Lyon, 25% to a draw and 22% to Fenerbahçe.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Lyon have a 53% chance of winning. Draw probability is 25%. Fenerbahçe have a 22% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.