Ajax vs FC Sion prediction
UEFA Europa Conference League
Kickoff: 19:00
Final result
Ajax 5–3 FC Sion
Prediction published 27 Aug 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 27 Aug 2026, 21:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Ajax
No verified absences returned.
FC Sion
No verified absences returned.
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
No verified absence currently requires a probability adjustment.
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 49.9% · edge +7.1 pts · odds 1.87
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Ajax played FC Sion. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 59% to Ajax, 20% to a draw and 21% to FC Sion.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Ajax have a 59% chance of winning. Draw probability is 20%. FC Sion have a 21% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.